Padres Funny Padres Rule 5 Draft

In his beginning year in San Diego Fernando Tatis, Jr. has emerged as ane of the best players in baseball game. (Photo: San Diego Padres/Andy Hayt)

As the San Diego Padres wrap up a disappointing 2019 season, the attention will soon turn to an off-season that will kickoff with a manager search, and so transition to improving the on-field production in 2020.

The big league guild limped to another 90-loss campaign, sucking optimism and hope out of a fanbase that has been desperately starved for a winner. Despite a putrid second one-half of play, the perception outside of San Diego is that the Padres nevertheless have a bright future ahead of them.

"I nevertheless call up that [the Padres] have one of the best farm systems in baseball," said Jim Callis, a senior author with MLB Pipeline. "When y'all look at their electric current large league club, it seems like nearly all of the best players [are on the younger side]. Manny Machado is only 26 years old, [Hunter] Renfroe is 27. It all the same seems like most of their guys are either in their prime or getting to their prime rather than past their prime.

"When you look at their Baseball Reference page, their top six starters they used this year are 26, 24, 23, 24, 26 and 23 and they accept more than on the fashion. I still call back that'due south one of the all-time groups of immature talent at the major and modest league level that y'all tin run across anywhere in baseball."

As of now, the Padres have a total 40-human roster, plus 11 players that are currently housed on the 60-day injured list. Those xi players will have to be moved onto the xl-human roster 72 hours after the terminal out of the Earth Series.

Subsequently that, the club will need to determine which players from a talented and deep minor league arrangement to protect in the Rule 5 draft. While over 40 players will be eligible for the Dominion 5 draft if left unprotected, in that location are decisions to be made about roughly a dozen players. This group includes a pair of second-round picks in Buddy Reed and Michael Gettys.

The team has several pre-mediation players they could look to package with prospects equally a ways to upgrade their roster in 2020 and clear space on their 40-human being roster.

Under A.J. Preller, the Padres have not lost a player in either the major league or minor league stage of the draft. However, the team likely will non have the roster space to business firm of some of their talented merely risky prospects who volition need to protected.  The organisation has but 3 free agents, so there will be a lot of difficult decisions to be fabricated.

"The reality is that the prospect talent they take added and put together the last few years is starting to hitting that point where you have to protect them," said J.J. Cooper, the Executive Editor of Baseball America and their resident Dominion v draft guru.

"Without having washed a full roster analysis of everyone that they have to consider protecting, I do know that it'southward a full forty-human being, they have a bunch of guys on the 60-day [injured list] to bring back off which is going to make information technology even more than hard and then you merely look at the talent and the depth of talent they have in the minors and yeah, I'd expect that this would easily be the riskiest twelvemonth the Padres take had nether A.J. Preller for losing guys."

Let'southward take a dive into the electric current composition of the forty-human being roster before analyzing the modest leaguers who volition be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not added to the forty-homo roster.

60-24-hour interval injured list

RHP: Miguel Diaz, Brett Kennedy, Jacob Zip, Robert Stock, Adam Warren
LHP: Jose Castillo, Aaron Loup, Adrian Morejon
INF: Ian Kinsler, Fernando Tatis Jr.
OF: Franchy Cordero

The lx-twenty-four hour period injured listing includes the untouchable Fernando Tatis Jr. and peak prospect Adrian Morejon who struggled in a brief cameo in San Diego earlier hitting the injured listing with a sore shoulder. Jose Castillo, who impressed last season equally a rookie, fabricated but i appearance in San Diego in 2019. After one hiccup working back from a left flexor strain, he tore a ligament in his left middle finger and was shut down again in his flavor debut.

Franchy Cordero is a question mark going into the 2020 flavor. (Photo: Ivan Pierre Aguirre)

Franchy Cordero has the tools to be a star but has missed valuable development time equally he battled injuries the final two seasons. He heads into what would be his final pre-mediation season if he is in the majors most of next year having played in just 79 big league games.

Robert Stock, one of the great stories of 2018, notwithstanding hit triple-digits with his fastball but struggled with command at both the major and minor league levels before hitting the shelf with a bicep strain in July. Stock turns 30 in November and with all the young arms currently rostered, he may be expendable.

Jacob Null and Brett Kennedy both came into the season with a chance to secure spots in the big league rotation, but injuries kept them on the injured list all year. Miguel Diaz, likewise looking to cement a spot in the majors, instead began and concluded his season with knee injuries and totalled just 6.i innings for the Padres in 2019. All three will get more opportunities in the majors, but they may not be with the Padres.

The Padres face up a determination on whether to swallow the $iv.25 million nevertheless owed Ian Kinsler. The veteran infielder, who faces a tough comeback from a herniated disc in his neck, may non accept an obvious identify on the club's 25-man roster next season even if healthy.

Veteran relievers Aaron Loup and Adam Warren seem destined to be bought out of their 2020 options after combining for just 32 innings of work later signing equally free agents.

Guaranteed contracts for 2020

(contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts)

RHP: Garrett Richards ($8.5 one thousand thousand)
INF: Manny Machado ($32 million), Eric Hosmer ($21 million), Ian Kinsler ($three.75 million, plus $500,000 buyout for 2021), INF Hector Oliveria ($8.5 one thousand thousand)
OF/1B: Wil Myers ($22.5 million)

San Diego has $96.25 million committed to five players next flavour, plus another $viii.5 million they owe to Hector Olivera as part of sending Matt Kemp to Atlanta dorsum in 2016. While there has been much contend about what to exercise with Wil Myers, the Padres volition exist on the hook for a lofty sum of money unless they can detect a taker for him, which seems unlikely. Machado and Eric Hosmer are cornerstones of the franchise (at least monetarily) and are extremely unlikely to play anywhere other than San Diego in 2020.

Garrett Richards one time possessed the stuff to forepart a rotation. If the Padres are to debate in 2020, he volition need to return to class and stay healthy – two very large question marks.

Arbitration-eligible in 2020

RHP: Carl Edwards Jr., Kirby Yates
LHP: Robbie Erlin, Matt Strahm
C: Austin Hedges
INF: Greg Garcia
OF: Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot

The Padres will have to give lofty raises to Kirby Yates, who made slightly over $iii million this year and Hunter Renfroe, who has clubbed 89 homers in his first three major league seasons. Catcher Austin Hedges will be eligible for mediation for the second fourth dimension simply his woeful offensive flavor probably won't atomic number 82 to a meaning heighten above his current $ii 1000000 salary.  LHP Matt Strahm is an obvious tender and shouldn't command an extravagant salary. Manuel Margot is an obvious tender every bit well, despite production cratering over the last two months of the flavour.

From at that place, the Padres volition accept decisions to make on the remaining players. Greg Garcia is a useful utility infielder simply doesn't profile as an everyday player. Travis Jankowski broke his wrist in the bound and played very sparingly one time he was recalled at the end of the El Paso flavor. With seven other outfielders currently on the twoscore-man roster, Jankowski may exist a superfluous outfielder that the organization can part with. Robbie Erlin, the longest-tenured member of the organization, has been a useful pitcher piece in the past merely he struggled in 2019 and could likely be replaced by a pitcher already on the 40-human being roster. Carl Edwards Jr. — who was caused at the trade deadline for LHP Brad Wieck — shouldn't require a raise in a higher place his $1.five meg salary. However, the lodge may not-tender him, perhaps looking to bring him to camp on a minor league bargain. The Padres have a lot of young artillery who should exist in the mix in 2020 and it may be difficult to justify paying Edwards Jr. a seven-figure bacon.

Pre-arbitration players with big league experience

RHP: Pedro Avila, Michel Baez, David Bednar, Ronald Bolaños, Javy Guerra, Dinelson Lamet, Andres Muñoz, Chris Paddack, Luis Perdomo, Cal Quantrill, Gerardo Reyes, Trey Wingenter, Eric Yardley
LHP: Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi, Nick Margevicius
C: Austin Allen, Francisco Mejía, Luis Torrens
INF: Luis Urías, Ty French republic, Seth Mejias-Brean
OF: Nick Martini, Josh Naylor

Plenty of these players could form the cadre of the adjacent Padres playoff team. Chris Paddack showed that he has the stuff and poise to be a forepart-of-the-rotation starter. Dinelson Lamet faired well in his return from Tommy John surgery and should be a lock for the 2020 rotation. LHP Joey Lucchesi had a solid sophomore flavor and should have a role on next yr's squad. Former first-circular option Eric Lauer faced his share of struggles only like Lucchesi, he was able to produce a State of war over ii. While he is not a lock for the rotation next yr, he is firmly in the mix. Andres Muñoz and Cal Quantrill pitched well at times during the second half and both should factor into the 2020 pitching staff.

One position to watch volition be at catcher, where the Padres currently accept 4 on the 40-man roster, with Francisco Mejía headlining the pre-arbitration grouping. He showed promise with the bat in the flavor's 2nd half and figures to receive a significant corporeality of playing time. Luis Torrens was one of the best hitters in the Texas League this year and has made tremendous strides defensively. Austin Allen didn't receive a lot of playing fourth dimension this flavour simply his power from the left-side of the plate makes him interesting.

On the xl-homo with no big league service

RHP: Anderson Espinoza
OF: Edward Olivares

Anderson Espinoza hasn't appeared in a game since the 2016 flavour. (Photograph: Jeff Nycz)

Only 2 players on the 40-man roster have yet to make their major league debut. Edward Olivares, broke out in Amarillo this flavour and should open up 2020 in El Paso. Anderson Espinoza will once again miss most, if non all, of the season after having his second Tommy John procedure earlier this yr. The talented hurler has not thrown a pitch in a professional game since 2016 and it may be difficult for the organisation to go along to keep him on the 40-man roster.

"[Espinoza] is a tough one," said Callis. "The guy hasn't pitched since 2016, but he'due south still young. Would I want to accept a shot on him in the right situation? Yes. But I call up it would be very hard to protect him on the forty-man roster again.

"Could you lot see some squad who has a bad farm organisation and a bad big league club [claim him on waivers]? I guess someone could claim [Espinoza] simply information technology would be hard to keep him on the forty-man roster."

Potential Gratis Agents

RHP: Craig Stammen, Warren ($500,000 buyout of a $2.5 one thousand thousand social club option)
LHP: Loup ($200,000 buyout of a $ii million society choice)

The Padres won't go a lot of roster relief from free agency, every bit only three players — all relievers — can hit free agency. RHP Craig Stammen has been a reliable relief option and it'south reasonable to wait that the system would have some interest in retaining his services in 2020. Loup and Warren take been on the 60-day injured list most of the season and will likely be bought out.

September gives some clarity

While in that location are 40 or and then pocket-size leaguers who could exist eligible for the 40-man roster this wintertime, the organization took care of some of their fundamental decisions by adding players when rosters expanded in September. Righties Ronald Bolaños and David Bednar, and infielder Seth Mejias-Brean had their contracts purchased in the season's terminal calendar month. Bolaños and Bednar are both intriguing prospects and figure to stick throughout the winter.

Bolaños started the year in Lake Elsinore, where he showed increased velocity on his fastball and a very good curveball that he was able to throw to all quadrants of the plate. He pitched well in stretches for Amarillo and spent the last calendar month of the season in San Diego. He may take been the easiest decision to exist added to the 40-man roster.

Bednar, a former 35th-rounder, showed a mid-90s fastball and a newfound splitter which helped him take his game to another level. Despite a poor outing on Sat dark, he should be in the mix for a bullpen spot side by side jump.

Mejias-Brean has played well in a limited opportunity simply he is a 28-yr-old who has played eight seasons in the minors and figures to become a roster casualty at the end of the 2019 flavor.

Looking alee to the Dominion 5 draft

With Major League Baseball game expanding to 26-human being rosters for 2020, clubs volition have more than options to make information technology easier to shop a young Dominion five draftee. That could hateful organizations have a flier on a player they may non take previously.

"I do think [teams may be active in the Dominion five draft]," said Cooper. "Because there was talk of this several years ago. I heard some teams say that 'if we have a 26-man, then perhaps nosotros apply that a picayune differently.'

"Whether that's stashing a actor or a team says 'this limited player can just practise these couple of things, maybe information technology'due south worthwhile for united states of america.' Maybe a team, for example, says, 'we got this 80-runner center fielder and nosotros think we tin deport him as a pinch-runner or a defensive replacement in center field.' That's not something you lot'd exercise with a 25-man, just maybe you would with a 26 [man roster]."

"Or perchance it's 'hey this Low-A pitcher isn't ready past any stretch of the imagination, but where it would be hard to carry him on a 25-human being roster because it's going to make your bullpen an arm short, nosotros can carry him on a 26-homo [roster].' I think information technology does open up some more possibilities similar that."

How the Rule 5 Draft works

The Rule v draft breaks downward into major and small league phases. In the Major League phase, a team pays $100,000 to the drafted player's original team. That thespian has to be immediately added to the 40-man roster and must stay on the agile big league roster all season. To remove the thespian from the 26-human roster, he must showtime be offered back to the original team, so articulate waivers. The original system tin have him back and return $50,000 of the original fee, or let him stay with the organization that drafted him. Rule 5 players can exist traded but the roster rules still apply.

After the major league phase is completed, the small-scale league stage begins. Teams can protect an additional 38 players on their Triple-A reserve list, cut the puddle of options significantly. Players selected in this phase face no restrictions on where they can play the post-obit year.

Players signed at 18 or younger are eligible for selection in the fifth Rule v typhoon following their official contract date. Players who had turned nineteen past June v but prior to signing their outset contract get eligible after iv years. Generally, higher players drafted in 2016 or earlier will be eligible for this year's Rule v typhoon. High school and international players from the 2015 class will exist eligible for the offset time if they signed at 18 or younger.

San Diego will have an interesting mix of erstwhile top draft picks and international signings that could appeal to other clubs, either via trade or in the Rule 5 typhoon. Here is the listing of players that the Padres volition demand to protect:

RHP: Elliot Ashbeck, Lake Bachar, Carlos Belen*, J.C. Cosme, Dom DiSabatino, Jordan Guerrero, Henry Henry, Kyle Lloyd*, Trevor Megill, Evan Miller, Emmanuel Ramirez*, Hansel Rodriguez, Blake Rogers, Jesse Scholtens, Austin Smith, Dauris Valdez

Left-handed pitchers: Jerry Keel, Kyle McGrath, Travis Radke

Catchers: A.J. Kennedy, Kyle Overstreet, Webster Rivas*

Infielders: Ivan Castillo*, Allen Córdoba, Crimson Giron, Kelvin Melean, Eguy Rosario, Esteury Ruiz, Ethan Skender, Peter Van Gansen, Jason Vosler, Brad Zunica, Aderlin Rodriguez*, Kelvin Alarcon, Reinaldo Ilarraza.

Outfielders: Nate Easley, Michael Gettys, Taylor Kohlwey, Jorge Oña, Rodrigo Orozco*, Buddy Reed

*Thespian is eligible for minor league free agency. Players re-signing minor league contracts prior to the Dominion 5 draft are eligible for selection.

The Rule five-eligible group is headlined past a trio of outfielders who could intrigue other organizations. Jorge Oña, lauded for his offensive potential, received the second-largest bonus during the 2016 international signing period.

Jorge Oña got off to his all-time starting time since coming over from Republic of cuba merely then went down with an injury. (Photograph: John Moore)

Fast forward three years and Oña, who turns 23 this winter, is at a chip of a crossroads. He started his pro career in 2017 in Fort Wayne and posted a solid wRC+ of 115 but struggled with injuries and consistency with Lake Elsinore in 2018.

This spring, Oña looked tremendous at the plate, making loud and consistent contact. He carried that into Amarillo, where he hit .348/.417/.539 in 114 plate appearances. But, Oña hit the injured list in May and soon underwent flavour-catastrophe surgery. The organization surely wants to see how Oña bounces dorsum in 2020, however, the team already has a large group on the 40-man roster and may not want to use a spot for Oña despite the large investment the club fabricated in him.

"To me, with the Rule 5 Draft, you're looking for a guy who y'all experience is set up to compete," said Cooper. "Ideally, near of the outfielders who become picked can play center field. Besides, you're looking for a guy that y'all feel comfy with stepping up and playing. And I am not so comfortable with Oña being able to do that.

[Oña] is a name and people know about him but I don't run across [him being selected]."

Buddy Reed, San Diego's second-round choice in 2016, has loud tools but struggled to brand consistent contact in Double-A after making strides at Lake Elsinore in 2018. That functioning led to Reed playing aslope Tatis and Urías in the MLB Futures Game, where he made a spectacular catch, robbing Tatis of an extra-base striking. Reed'due south charismatic demeanor also earned him praise from many who covered the game.

Nevertheless, Reed has struggled to brand consistent contact in Double-A. Reed has struck out in thirty% of his 600-plus Texas League plate appearances. Reed did hit xiv homers, stole 23 bases and has played corking defense at all iii outfield positions.

"[Reed] is a really good defensive player and he can run so he can contribute in those ways," said Callis. "Only now when you are looking at teams carrying 12 position players on a roster, are y'all going to keep Buddy Reed and Rule 5 him for the whole year?

"I like Buddy, he'south a neat personality too, so you kind of root for him. I'd accept a difficult time seeing him getting picked in the Dominion 5, to be honest. He hit .228 in Double-A, he's struck three times more than than he has walked and the only place that he really put up big numbers in the minors was in Lake Elsinore which isn't exactly Petco Park. He's going to be 25 side by side year and I'm nether the supposition that those roster spots will be at a premium, I recollect you don't protect him and if somebody Rule 5's him, they Rule 5 him."

"The reality is that Buddy has had troubles with his hit tool," said Cooper. "It'due south desultory; there are times that he hits. Just at that place have too been significant stretches [where he hasn't hit]. Information technology's impossible to say right now that Buddy Reed can handle Double-A pitching. And if that'due south the case, I recollect you accept to have concerns if you a team in saying 'what is that going to translate to in the majors?' And especially in the majors with sporadic playing fourth dimension.

"Again, I am not saying that some team wouldn't take a look if he was left unprotected. I go a little crazy on the Rule 5 draft preview and he'd definitely make the preview merely I do not run into him as someone who'due south likely to be picked."

Outfielder Michael Gettys slammed a career-loftier 31 homers in El Paso, which set a new franchise record. He also has a plus arm and is a fine defensive outfielder. Yet, similar Reed, at that place are many questions about his ability to brand contact.

Gettys struck out in 30% of his plate appearances and his overall slash-line of .256/.305/.517 was 12% below league-boilerplate. For the 2d consecutive flavour, Gettys volition exist bachelor to 29 other organizations, bold the Padres do non add together him to the 40-man roster. For a team facing a bit of a roster crisis, that may be hard.

Michael Gettys striking 31 home runs for El Paso this flavour. .Photo: Jorge Salgado

"With Gettys, y'all take upper-level minor league experience," said Cooper. "He's got enough of upper-level experience but on the flip side, I know he hit a ton of homers this year for El Paso, [but] everyone hitting a bunch of homers for El Paso. You obviously accept to worry about the hitting-tool.

"Merely at the same fourth dimension again, if yous are a squad that's looking at defensive [ability], power and they tin can live with the average, and so yep, I could encounter that being a possibility; I wouldn't say it's implausible."

In the lower minors, the Padres have a few intriguing position players who should likewise merit consideration for a roster spot. Infielder/outfielder Esteury Ruiz has generally been office of height-30 Padres' prospects lists since the arrangement acquired him from Kansas City back in 2017.

Ruiz had a decent beginning-one-half for Lake Elsinore and even made an advent in the California League All-Star game, where he blasted a no-doubt homer. However, the xx-year-old hitting but .190/.233/.256 in July before missing the terminal month of the season with a hand injury. The talented athlete played 2d base for the majority of the season but made a widely-anticipated shift to left field upon Xavier Edwards' promotion to the Storm. Ruiz has tremendous athleticism but struggled to accept efficient routes in left field in our brief look at him this summer. He is however incredibly young and talented but his lack of experience in the upper levels of the minors should reduce his ability to stay at the big league level all season.

"[Ruiz] is an interesting prospect," said Callis. "Merely he would exist tough to protect. With Ruiz having a crude year in High-A, I don't know how you could look at him and say, 'Oh, I think that guy is going to be set up for the big leagues.' So I recollect he is the blazon of guy who is notwithstanding a prospect only my gauge is that yous don't protect him and he doesn't get taken in the Dominion 5 draft.

20-year-one-time Eguy Rosario spent a second sequent flavor in Lake Elsinore, breaking out in the second one-half. Overall, Rosario'south slash-line of .278/.331/.412 is just in a higher place league-average. All the same, in the second half, Rosario hitting a blistering .319/.370/.485 while striking out in just xvi% of his plate appearances. Rosario also played every position in the infield, although he profiles best at 2d or third.

"With Eguy, y'all have some defensive value," said Cooper. "That gives y'all a starting point considering I have heard good things most his defence force. He's got some versatility. He'south probably not the all-time at short but … could plausibly exist a backup infielder. The reality of it is that information technology would be a big spring.

"He's the kind of guy that maybe gets taken but I probably wouldn't put it above 50% that he would exist able to stick merely at the same fourth dimension, that's what leads to a whole agglomeration of fun decisions about the guys that yous'd need to protect."

Others of note:

RHP Elliot Ashbeck had a very good year for Lake Elsinore, bouncing back-and-forth betwixt the rotation and the bullpen. He is also pitching in the Arizona Fall League after throwing virtually 100 innings. Even so, he doesn't possess large-time stuff and he will be 26 at the beginning of the spring.

RHP Carlos Belen converted to the mound last year and reached Double-A Amarillo this season. He has a mid-90s fastball and a developing slider. The Padres first have to convince him to sign as a pocket-sized league costless agent before worrying about his Rule 5 eligibility.

RHP Dauris Valdez is amid the biggest humans in the Padres system, at vi-foot-eight. He tin can bear on triple-digits with his fastball but he averaged four.55 walks per nine innings out of the Amarillo bullpen. The soonhoped-for 24-year-old is with the Padres' instructional league this autumn. He is the meridian of arm that a rebuilding club may take a shot on.

Infielder Ivan Castillo, who missed April with an injury, wound up winning the Texas League batting title. The switch-hitter possesses adept speed and can play all around the diamond, and offers additional versatility as a switch-hitter. He was signed as a minor league complimentary agent concluding winter, so the organisation doesn't take as much invested in him as some of the other players on this list. He'll take options equally a minor league complimentary agent again this winter.

Looking ahead to navigating 2020

After next season, the Padres' will need to protect their 2016 international draft grade. This includes players like Gabriel Arias, Jeisson Rosario, and Tirso Ornelas. If the Padres are going to trade from their prospect depth, this off-flavour might be the best time.

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Source: https://madfriars.com/2019/09/30/padres-40-man-roster-crunch-rule-5-preview/

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